First, the biggest "retirement tide" in history struck.

Just this year, men born in 1962 will reach the retirement age of 60, and most ordinary female workers born in 1972 will also retire this year.

In fact, since 1949, China has experienced three baby boomers in 1950-1958, 1962-1975 and 1981-1997. The biggest one is this peak that started in 1962. During this period, the average annual birth population in China reached 25.83 million, which was 5.06 million and 3.77 million more than the previous two baby boomers respectively. Based on this calculation, the "post-60s" and "post-70s" born during this peak period will enter the old age around 2022-2035 and become the "main force" of the retirement tide. This also means that more people may retire next year.

This round of "retirement tide" will lead to a continuous sharp decline in the working-age population.

Peng Xizhe, director of Fudan University‘s Population and Development Policy Research Center and president of Fudan University‘s Institute of Aging, recently pointed out that in this wave of "retirement tide", more than 20 million people will retire every year; At the same time, China‘s annual potential labor supply is about 17-18 million. That is to say, China will reduce its working-age population by 3-5 million every year.

In some developed countries, the crisis of labor shortage has already been revealed. According to the statistics of the United Nations, among the 51 high-income countries, the working-age population between 15 and 64 will reach 780 million in 2020, and then tend to decrease. According to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, the unemployment rate in western countries has declined, but it is difficult to raise salaries, because the shortage of manpower has become a stumbling block and the economic vitality on the supply side has declined. According to the research report released by Brilliant International Consulting, Germany will face a huge labor gap in the future. By 2030, nearly 5 million professional and technical jobs will be vacant, which will reduce the economic income by tens of millions of euros. According to the report of the Independent Business Alliance of Canada (CFIB), the shortage of labor force leads to a new high of job vacancies in Canada. The declining number of children and aging, coupled with the persistence of the epidemic, have made Japan still unable to extricate itself from the plight of labor shortage. The employment crisis will sweep across the world‘s major economies and have an irreversible impact on some industries and enterprises. The shortage of labor forces enterprises to face more and more pressure, and it will become more and more difficult to attract talents needed for their own development. Limited by manpower, some enterprises have stagnated their growth, unable to produce more goods or provide more services.

Second, the robot fills the position to reshape the labor market with scientific and technological strength

The population trend is difficult, so it is necessary to develop technology, improve labor productivity and create more value with less labor. In order to cope with the challenges of the aging population and the decreasing working-age population, developed countries have turned to the use of emerging technologies to promote the growth of labor productivity. With the in-depth development of big data, automation, artificial intelligence and other technologies, it is increasingly obvious that enterprises use robots to fill the manpower shortage.

It‘s nothing new that robots take the place of people. In 1984, the world‘s first "unmanned factory" was established in Tsukuba, Japan, and a large number of industrial robots were applied to production. Foxconn, which employs millions of people in China, has been introducing robots to replace labor, and now the number is very large.

In the past five years, the market demand for industrial robots has obviously accelerated. According to the data provided in this report, the global market sales of industrial robots reached 496,870 units in 2021, and the sales of industrial robots in China ranked first in the world. To some extent, the shortage of labor force seems to promote the process of automation. At present, we have seen the tremendous impact of various intelligent and automatic technologies on all walks of life. From medical robots and logistics robots to restaurant robots and home service robots, robots have been widely used in various fields, bringing great convenience to people‘s lives.

Third, labor cannot be completely replaced.

With the gradual popularization of automation equipment such as industrial robots, the repetitive jobs in factories will definitely be replaced, and the number of ordinary workers will gradually decrease, but the management and maintenance technicians of corresponding automation equipment will increase. Even if the manufacturing process doesn‘t require workers to participate, the robot needs to be programmed and maintained manually to ensure the operation of the whole production process.

According to the analysis report on the employment situation of industrial robot system operators released by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, 67% of employees‘ enterprises or companies have introduced industrial robots or intelligent manufacturing production lines as production equipment, which shows that the job demand of industrial robot system operators is constantly increasing.

44.44% of industrial robot system operators have a college degree, 1.48% are graduate students, and 45% have a college degree or below. Robot system operators have low employment threshold. What‘s more, this report shows that 45% of industrial robot system operators‘ salary is twice the local average salary, and the salary of industrial robot system operators is generally higher than the local average salary.

We have been discussing that machine substitution can cope with the problems of aging, declining birthrate and difficulty in recruiting workers. However, machine substitution does not mean that people are not needed. On the contrary, people are needed most. In this process, some general workers who only do repetitive work will be reduced, while the demand for professional skilled workers will inevitably increase substantially. Where can this kind of talent be found? How to train more suitable talents is still a problem to be solved.

Fourth, accelerate the transformation and upgrading of intelligent manufacturing

With the aging population, decreasing labor supply and rising labor costs, industrial robots can indeed fill the shortage of some labor. However, industrial robots are obviously not omnipotent in dealing with the aging problem. Otherwise, as a country with many world-class industrial robot technologies and enterprises, and a high density of industrial robots, Japan will not delay its retirement age to 70 to cope with the social labor crisis caused by declining birthrate and aging.

It is undeniable that with the further development of aging, enterprises will be further accelerated to carry out intelligent transformation. Aging means not only the decrease of young labor force, but also the rapid development of intelligent manufacturing. Manufacturing enterprises must rely on technological upgrading and accelerate the transition to intelligent manufacturing, so as to achieve a balance in terms of aging society, rising labor costs and improving production efficiency of enterprises.

With the improvement of independent innovation capability of China‘s manufacturing industry, automation equipment manufacturing has entered the stage of import substitution and rapid advancement. In recent years, some automation equipment manufacturing enterprises have accumulated deep technical reserves and rich R&D experience, and have many independent intellectual property rights and core technologies. This advantage ensures the progress of products and services of enterprises, improves the competitive advantage of enterprises, and creates a huge space for import substitution.

At present, the competitive pattern of the world economy is undergoing profound changes and adjustments. Developed countries hope to upgrade the manufacturing industry and develop new industries through new technology platforms, and continue to firmly grasp the high-end links of the global value chain with core technologies and professional services. Capital, technology, policies and other industrial factors flow back to the manufacturing industries of these developed countries, which will inevitably impact China‘s current economic development and industrial structure. It is urgent to cross the task of transformation, upgrading and development of China‘s manufacturing industry. With China‘s manufacturing industry winning the international competitive advantage and accelerating the optimization, upgrading and adjustment of industrial structure, the automation equipment manufacturing industry has ushered in a new development opportunity.

V. Conclusion.

Looking around, the robot industry is progressing in an orderly way; Careful observation shows that many innovations have quietly taken place, and the whole industry is accumulating energy and brewing a new round of changes and outbreaks. We believe that with the joint efforts of all of you, China‘s robot industry will be able to continue its customer service difficulties and flourish, and will surpass and lead in the future global competition.

Disclaimer: The article is reproduced as China Robot Network.